Studying Abroad 2024

My yearly roundup of international draft prospects looks at the class from a statistical point of view using my DMX draft model. Here are the draft model projections and overall rankings for the international prospects in the latest ESPN mock draft:

RK	PLAYER	POS	xWINS
5	Alex Sarr	C	3.5
6	Nikola Topic	PG	3.5
23	Zaccharie Risacher	SF	2.4
26	Juan Nunez	PG	2.3
39	Tidjane Salaun	SF/PF	1.8
47	Pacome Dadiet	SF	1.7
76	Nikola Djurisic	SF	1.1
77	Ariel Hukporti	C	1.1
80	Melvin Pierre Ajinca	SF	1.0
95	Bobi Klintman	SF/PF	0.7

– – – – – – –

Alex Sarr

There has been something of a consensus building around French 7-footer Alex Sarr as the #1 pick, and normally I would be on board. When in doubt, I almost always rank a versatile 7-footer at the top of the draft; Joel Embiid, Karl Towns, Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, etc. It is a tried and true prototype that has produced lots of superstars and MVPs throughout NBA history. The problem with Alex Sarr is that he just isn’t that good. Sarr, who played his pre-draft season for the Perth Wildcats in the Australian NBL, basically looks like a poor man’s version of Mobley. While I am still bullish on Mobley’s potential, he is not exactly setting the league on fire and drafting a lesser version of him first overall feels suboptimal.

Nikola Topic

Neck-and-neck with Sarr atop this year’s international rankings is 6’6″ Serbian point guard Nikola Topic. Topic vaulted to the top of draft boards with a strong start to the season playing for prospect hub Mega Leks in the Adriatic League. His much anticipated move to Euroleague club Red Star was marred by middling performance and injuries, most recently a partially torn ACL which could affect his rookie year. It is worrisome that Topic couldn’t make it through the season healthy, but I would think twice before fading him. Here is where Topic falls among the top projected guard prospects in my database (since 2006).

If you’re still not convinced, here are the top international prospects since ’06.

It is possible that Topic ends up being a version of Josh Giddey or Nick Calathes, but he is a better scorer and shooter than both were at this stage of their career. Topic’s high volume of scoring and assisting makes him one of the highest upside players in this draft and worth the risk of selecting in the top five.

Zaccharie Risacher

Sarr’s main challenger for the top pick in 2024 is fellow Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher, who made a late push thanks to a strong performance in the French league playoffs. Risacher is also an appealing prototype as a young, 6’8″ wing who shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc this season. However, the rest of his game leaves some to be desired, as you can see by his draft model projection which puts him nowhere near the top pick. Only infamous bust Anthony Bennett had a lower projection among #1 picks since 2006. The Risacher comp that no one wants to confront is Kevin Knox.

This is especially concerning when you consider all of the parallels, not only statistically but physically, age, youth hype, and so on. Risacher should probably be drafted closer to where Knox was (9th overall) than the first pick.

Juan Nunez

Juan Nunez is a prospect with a lot of peaks and valleys statistically. He is tops among the 175 players in my database in assists per 40 minutes (8.5) and seventh in steals (2.6) which, along with youth and positional size, mostly accounts for his solid projection in my model. However, Nunez is a wretched shooter for a guard (32% 3pt, 61% FT) and is third in the draft class (effectively tied for first) with 4.3 turnovers per 40. Most concerning is that Nunez has the lowest block rate among 2024 prospects with two paltry swats in over 2500 minutes. As a guy whose path to sticking in the league is as a Kris Dunn type point guard defender, this is a bit of a dealbreaker. Compare this to an NCAA prospect in a similar mold, Virginia’s Reece Beekman, who blocked 69 shots over his college career (~4120 minutes).

Tidjane Salaun

Pacome Dadiet

I grouped Tidjane Salaun and Pacome Dadiet together because the two French wing forwards present an interesting dichotomy. As you can see, they are very similar statistically, the same age, and separated by an inch in height. Even their strength of schedule is a wash by my estimation, with Salaun playing in the French league and Champions League and Dadiet in the German league and Eurocup, so naturally the two have roughly the same projection in my model. The reason this is an interesting comparison is that Salaun is the projected #8 pick in the latest ESPN mock draft with Dadiet going off the board 30 spots later. In their top 100 rankings they are ranked #9 and #29 respectively. Even if you accept that NBA GMs are obsessed with mediocre French prospects like Ousmane Dieng and Bilal Coulibaly, that should apply to both guys. Based on my model, Dadiet is the only French wing who is ranked rationally and Salaun, and Risacher for that matter, are seriously overrated.

Nikola Djurisic

Nikola Djurisic made significant improvements in his second draft-eligible season, most notably raising his 3pt% and FT% from 22% and 67.5% to 31% and 76%. A late-season scoring tear followed by a standout performance at the NBA Combine has made him one of the biggest draft risers of the last month or so. I think this has solidified Djurisic as draft worthy, but that’s about as far as I can go for a guy with so-so stats in the Adriatic League.

Ariel Hukporti

German 7-footer Ariel Hukporti was a big deal in NBA draft circles a few years ago. After a preseason injury cost him the entire 2023 season, he bounced back this year putting up 18 points, 16 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per 40 minutes in the Australian NBL. Hukporti is probably the best auto-eligible international prospect this year and a solid bet as a late draft-and-stash pick.

Melvin Pierre Ajinca

Next up, you guessed it, another 6’8″ wing from France! The model puts Melvin Ajinca a tier below the others which is more-or-less in line with consensus. Ajinca is an impressive shooter at 6’8″ with a 37.5% 3pt and 82% FT over the last two seasons, but doesn’t bring much more to the table. I would group him with Nikola Djurisic in the mid-late second round range.

Bobi Klintman

Since the overwhelming majority of draft picks come from the NCAA, the goal of the international projections is to estimate how these guys would have performed in college basketball. In the case of rangey Swedish forward Bobi Klintman we already know the answer to this; he had a 0.5 BPM in about 20 minutes per game for a Wake Forest team that finished 86th in KenPom. Granted that he showed improvement this year in Australia, Klintman is very much a tools/prototype based prospect who displayed solid shooting ability (36% 3pt, 78% FT) at 6’10”. As someone who believes production is more indicative of upside than physical tools, I see Klintman as a late second round flier, not a first rounder.