Studying Abroad 2023

My yearly roundup of international draft prospects looks at the class from a statistical point of view using my DMX draft model. Here are the draft model projections and rankings for the international prospects in the latest ESPN mock draft:

RK	PLAYER	POS	HT	xWINS
1	Victor Wembanyama	C	7-4	5.7
9	James Nnaji	C	7-0	3.2
30	Tristan Vukcevic	C	7-0	1.8
36	Bilal Coulibaly	SF	6-7	1.7
89	Rayan Rupert	SG/SF	6-7	0.6

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Victor Wembanyama

If you are reading this, chances are you are aware of Victor Wembanyama, the towering young Frenchman who is sure to be the #1 overall pick. Since Wemby is unquestionably the best player in the 2023 draft, the conversation has shifted to where he stands historically as a prospect. Wembanyama will join Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson, and Ben Simmons as the only players since 2006 to rank first in my projections and be selected first overall. Say what you will about Zion and Simmons, but both of them made multiple All-Star teams and that is the floor for prospects with this resume. I do have to push back on the idea that he is the best prospect since LeBron or even better than King James. AD, Williamson, and Luka Doncic projected better in my model. Zion came with some physical question marks but so does Wemby. Anthony Davis had an impeccable prospect profile as the #1 high school recruit and Final Four Most Outstanding Player as a freshman at Kentucky. It hurts Doncic’s case that he was the third pick in his own draft, but he was probably the most proven and accomplished 19 year old basketball player ever to exist. Regardless of where he ranks all-time, Wembanyama is an elite prospect who likely falls somewhere between Kristaps Porzingis and the French Kareem.

James Nnaji

Nnaji’s stats won’t blow you away, but his combination of size, youth, and efficiency in the brutal Spanish ACB is good enough to put him in the top ten overall in my projections. However, it should be noted that there is some question as to whether the native Nigerian is truly 18 years old. Nnaji is the latest in a long line of big men to come through the ACB by way of another continent.

YEAR	PLAYER	POS	HT	xWINS
2013	Lucas Nogueira	C	7-0	3.5
2023	James Nnaji	C	7-0	3.2
2011	Bismack Biyombo	C	6-9	3.1*
2021	Usman Garuba	PF/C	6-8	2.8
2014	Edy Tavares	C	7-3	2.3
2022	Khalifa Diop	C	6-11	1.8
2022	Yannick Nzosa	C	7-0	0.8

Granted this is not the most impressive list, Nnaji projects well comparatively. Bebe Nogueira was an underrated big man and Biyombo has carved out a 12-year career as a defensive stalwart. The model is probably too bullish on Nnaji, but I think he is worth a shot in the late first round.

Tristan Vukcevic

Tristan Vukcevic had a breakout 2023 season and reportedly shined at the NBA draft combine. The versatile 7-footer is slotted in at 44th in ESPN’s latest mock draft which seems a bit low, but to be fair it has been a while since the Adriatic League has produced anyone of consequence.

Bilal Coulibaly

Victor Wembanyama’s teammate also turned the heads of scouts by emerging as a key player for a top French league team at 18 years old. The hype around Coulibaly has pushed him into the lottery mix according the ESPN. Even as a teenager playing against pros, Coulibaly’s per 40 minute averages of 11.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists are light for a lottery pick, and a FT% in the low 60’s raises concerns about his shooting touch.

Rayan Rupert

Rayan Rupert is yet another young Frenchman who took his talents to the Australian NBL. Even accounting for his youth and the NBL being a tough environment to put up stats, Rupert looks like a marginal draft prospect. His projection places him between a pair of Sam Presti misfires, Ousmane Dieng and Terrence Ferguson, among players to come out of the NBL.